Crypto Forecasting: Leveraging the Collective Intelligence

In the highly volatile crypto market, there is no shortage of miracle solutions, free stuff and promises to make you obscenely rich.  What makes users skeptical about anything they don’t create themselves, is the  black-box, opaque and often downright deceptive advertising about the value they’re getting when they sign up.    Enter Equeum,  introducing a very different approach to crypto trend forecasting.  While we have provided a  proof-of-concept forecast, our business is really about building a platform where a global pool of incentivized developers can contribute data and code resulting in increasingly robust forecasts. Equeum is currently in public beta and making available its API and bot templates to a global audience.

Technical Analysis (TA) methods are the basis of most models for building strategies that integrate with trading bots like Jessie and FreqTrade.    The downsides of TA are well documented;  it’s only price-volume based;  history is not always the best predictor of future performance; and what about other factors – sudden changes, geo-political events, sentiment?  The list is long.

The crypto market is still in its infancy but we can learn a lot from Wall Street and the likes of Warren Buffet who no longer relies on TA.  From the beginning, Equeum has built its strategy around the success of Wall Street quant firms that mine signals from large quantities of data to build effective trading strategies.    

Equeum is a little startup, but it’s different in one fundamental way:  We use a lot of data – on-chain, sentiment, exchange inflow/outflow, token valuation metrics such as UTXO and MVRV, wallet/address analytics, and derivative-based indicators…more than 600 unique data points.  Our premise is that one signal is not enough to make a reliable forecast. However,  by combining multiple ‘weak signals,’  our proof-of-concept returns prove both initial success and significant  potential of our forecasting strategy.   Just for fun, consider this: On Feb 1, 2022, if I had invested  $1000 in Ethereum, using Equeum’s forecast tools, the PNL (bottom trendline) indicates a respectable  333% increase. On Nov. 12, 2022, I’d have $4330.

In talking to some of our early adopters,  the question of trust is always at the core.   They tell stories about building models using other (TA based) tools that “look great in backtesting,” but falter when they go live.   So why should they believe Equeum’s promises? 

We have a different approach that is all about transparency.  There is no model that will print money for you; our premise is that by leveraging the collective intelligence of the community, we can build and continue to improve forecast reliability over time.  We invite you to see for yourself. You can watch Equeum’s trend signals passively; you can hook up our forecast to your FreqTrade or Jesse  trading bot, or you can develop and enhance your own forecasting models using Equeum’s developer tools.   We ask that you join our community and engage with us on our journey.

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